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Political Cycles and Their Impact on Macroeconomic Indicators in the Central Europe
Botka, Jan ; Hlaváček, Michal (advisor) ; Buliskeria, Nino (referee)
This study examines the impact of the political cycle on macroeconomic indica- tors in Central Europe, with a special focus on the Czech Republic. Thirty-nine Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models were constructed using data from 1998 to 2022 aiming to apply the Political Business Cycle (PBC) theory. It is the frst time the VAR model has been used in this context for most of the selected countries. As the main variables in the model, subject to potential infuence by political cycles, were chosen real GDP, infation and unemployment. The results showed that no consistent signifcant relationship exists across all coun- tries, with each nation displaying varying connections and occasional contra- dictions to the presupposed theory. Nevertheless, certain associations between the political cycle and macroeconomic indicators were observed in individual countries, supporting the presence of the PBC to some extent in the Czech Re- public, Hungary, and Austria. Conversely, no evidence or even contradictory results were found for the PBC in Slovakia, Poland, and Germany. Addition- ally, the presence of the "partisan" political cycle was identifed in Hungary but not in the Czech Republic, Germany, or Austria. Poland's signifcant results exhibited signs opposite to those expected. This research opens new...
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Political business cycle in the USA, Germany and the UK
Štěpanovský, Martin ; Ševčíková, Michaela (advisor) ; Procházka, Pavel (referee)
This thesis analyses the influence of political decision-making and electoral cycles on three selected national economies -- the UK, the USA and Germany between 2003 and 2013. GDP growth rate, unemployment, inflation, compound tax quota, deficits, average and minimal wages and main bourse indexes are used in this work to find out if politicians are manipulating with economy to be reelected. Proof of the existence of the political business cycle in developed democratic countries is more then unclear.
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Political Business Cycle in Czech municipalities in period 2000 - 2013
Gec, Jaromír ; Rod, Aleš (advisor) ; Chytil, Zdeněk (referee)
This bachelor thesis deals with Political Business (budget) Cycle in Czech municipalities. It tries to determine whether elections induce changes in the size and the structure of municipal budget expenditures and whether these changes increase chances of incumbent politicians' reelection. Using a dynamic panel, a fixed effects model and a linear probability model together with the dataset composed of 193 (or 187) municipalities 'of extended scope' in the period 2000 -- 2013 it was found that the biggest increase in capital expenditures takes place in pre-election years while after elections those expenditures decline. Such expansion does not seem to have a meaningful effect on chances of reelection though. Conversely budget deficits fall in pre-election years and grow in election years. Ideology has not been proved to have a significant impact neither on the size of expenditures nor on the magnitude of cyclical changes.
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Political cycles: Do the politics buy their voters' ballots with higher expenditures?
Fischerová, Veronika ; Vostrovská, Zdenka (advisor) ; Procházka, Pavel (referee)
The present thesis is concerned with the existence of political cycles in European Union member states between 1990 and 2013. These cycles are of two types: political business cycles and political budget cycles. The analysis was performed by means of the fixed effects method (using first differences) along with a visual analysis of data. The results obtained from three types of data sets show that two years before elections, inflation grows at 0.47%, unemployment rate at 0.5%, and structural balance at 0.8%. One of the data sets reveals that structural balance is reduced by 0.39% in election years. The visual analysis clearly demonstrates that there exist political business cycles in Belgium, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Denmark, Germany, Poland and Sweden. Political budget cycles have been proven to exist in Belgium, France, Cyprus, Malta, Germany, Slovakia and the United Kingdom.
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Politicko ekonomický cyklus v České republice
Benko, Tomáš ; Potužák, Pavel (advisor) ; Dušek, Libor (referee)
This thesis seeks to analyze the phenomenon of political business cycle (PBC) in the Czech Republic. It follows up the efforts of previous authors to determine the existence and subsequent character of the PBC in the country. Based upon the related works, it summarizes the current situation. However, unlike the previous analyses, this work concerns the monetary side of the economy. To be more precise, it examines the role of the Czech National Bank (CNB) within the process of political business cycle. It questions the level of independency of the CNB and poses a question whether the institution might actively participate in the creation of PBC. The following empirical analysis reveals that the CNB actively reduces the monetary base level in the economy within the pre-election period. It might signal its tendency to mitigate opportunistic behavior of the government.
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Financial and economic results of public budgets in the light of political business cycles in the Czech Republic between years 1993 and 2010
Šefr, Michal ; Ševčík, Miroslav (advisor) ; Řežábek, Pavel (referee)
The thesis is focused on development of public finance in the Czech Republic between years 1993 and 2010. The crucial aim is to find out possible connections between increasing government deficits and the effort of politicians to be re-elected through higher government spending prior to an election. The analysis is mainly based on state and public budgets especially their annual changes in structure and basic components. I divide the cyclical and structural deficit and examine the influence of economic policy to its creation. In thesis is also described the general theory of public finance, issue of fiscal imbalance, public choice theory and its theory of political business cycle. The fiscal policy is carefully analyzed in recent electoral cycles in context of the economic and political development. The results of the analysis indicate that significant part of public debt has been created because of populist reasons especially in the period of economic expansion.
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Political business cycle and public procurements in regional municipalities
Březinová, Zuzana ; Pavel, Jan (advisor) ; Kučerová, Zuzana (referee)
The theme of this bachelor thesis is analysis of the political business cycle at public procurements in twelve regional municipalities in the Czech Republic. Two hypotheses are tested, one of which relates to oportunistic behaviour of incumbents, and the other one to corruption. Four quantities, at which course from January 2005 to March 2011 is observed, are tested here. These quantities are number of public procurements, total amout of public procurements, average number of bids to one procurement and proportion of final and expected prices. Each of these quantities is observed separately for public procurements for goods, deliveries and services. Regression analysis is used for testing. The result of this thesis is that political business cycle occured before election in 2006 at public procurements for goods and deliveries.
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Political Business Cycle and Public Procurements in Prague
Drzková, Petra ; Pavel, Jan (advisor) ; Holubářová, Jana (referee)
The aim of this bachelor thesis is to reveal whether there is a relation between public procurements and the political business cycle in Prague, the capital of the Czech Republic. The examined data cover a period from the year 2005 to 2011. Two hypotheses have been set in order to discover whether there is such a relation. The first one postulates that the public procurements are used on constructions, well visible investments, so as to increase the probability of being re-elected. The second hypothesis marks the effort of politicians to maximize their own benefits till the end of electoral term as the main reason for contracting public procurements. The hypotheses are proved separately for constructions and for supplies and services by the number of public procurements, the total amount of money spent on public procurements in a particular term, by average amount of bids and by the relate of the end and assumed price. The regression analysis was used as a tool of verification. The result is a determination if it is possible to find such a relation dependance of public procurements and political business cycle in Prague and what is assumed to be the main motive.
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Public budgets outcomes and the course of the political cycle in the Czech Republic in years 1993-2010
Kůs, Jan ; Ševčík, Miroslav (advisor) ; Říhová, Vladimíra (referee)
The aim of the thesis is to find possible connections between the financial results of public budgets and the course of the political cycle in the Czech Republic. The analysis for the period of 1993 - 2010 focuses initially on the development of the overall deficit; subsequently the development of selected items of public revenues and expenditures is investigated. A fundamental part of the work is the separation of the cyclical deficit, arising from fluctuations in economic activity and the structural deficit, which is produced through specific measures of government fiscal policy. The results of the analysis indicate that with the approaching elections, there was a greater release of the fiscal policy. During the second half of the electoral cycles have also been reported higher structural deficits. However, the differences are not high enough to be considered as statistically significant.
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An economic analysis of selected pre-election promises of 2006 and their impact on public spending
Zámorský, Tomáš ; Písař, Pavel (advisor) ; Ryvolová, Ivana (referee)
My thesis consernes with election promises analysis, which are part of every pre-election campaign. The aim is to verify the fact, that many of these promises is not, because of financial reasons, possible to realize. I focus on two known political parties: ODS and ČSSD. I make a comparision between real and hypothetic postures of state budgets, which will come, if the surveyed promises will come valid. Through this analysis I try to verify the political business cycle theory, that speaks about inadequate government expenditures in the election time and their impact on next years. The main idea of my thesis should be, that politics becomes nowadays a business, when politicians "buys" votes, to get to their prospective professions. No less important idea is, that nationals should not trust visible and grand gestures. They should follow their own intellect and see even that, what is not so visible.
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